The Kudus Research and Advocacy Center (KURAC), a respected Ghanaian organization known for its insight into constitutional matters, democracy, and elections, has shared its expert analysis on the upcoming 2024 general elections. Set for December 7, 2024, this election will be Ghana’s ninth under the Fourth Republic. As the first African country in sub-Saharan Africa to gain independence, Ghana is often regarded as a beacon of democracy, and the 2024 elections are no exception in terms of their importance for the region.
Since Ghana’s return to constitutional rule in 1992, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) have emerged as the dominant political forces, alternating in power. Both parties have participated in all eight general elections held since 1992. Four of those elections were won by the NDC (1992, 1996, 2008, and 2012) and four by the NPP (2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020).
In the upcoming 2024 election, KURAC’s analysis focuses on the “Northern Derby” – a unique face-off between two candidates from northern Ghana: former President John Dramani Mahama (NDC) and current Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (NPP). This article examines the two candidates’ popularity, social media presence, political experience, party policies, and the potential impact of their choice of running mates.
The Candidates
John Dramani Mahama (NDC) is a former president from the Savannah Region, who has climbed the political ladder, starting as an Assemblyman, Member of Parliament, Deputy Minister, Minister of Communications, Vice President, and eventually President. He is seen as a well-rounded politician with vast experience, having governed Ghana from 2012 to 2016.
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (NPP) is an economist from the North East Region. Trained in the UK and Canada, he previously served as Deputy Governor of the Bank of Ghana before being selected as NPP’s vice-presidential candidate in 2008. Though experienced in governance as Vice President, Bawumia lacks direct political experience compared to Mahama, having never held an elected office before his vice-presidential nomination, earning him the KURAC nickname “Political Neeno” (newcomer).
Both candidates’ fathers were politically active during Ghana’s early post-independence governments, giving them early exposure to political life.
Regional Dynamics
Ghana’s Northern Region was split into the Savannah and North East regions before the 2020 elections. In that election, Mahama won the Savannah Region with 138,001 votes (60.31% of valid votes), while Bawumia indirectly helped the NPP secure 122,742 votes (51.37%) in the North East Region. This shows Mahama’s stronger popularity in his home region.
However, the NPP’s stronghold remains the Ashanti Region, where Bawumia’s running mate, Dr. Matthew Opoku Prempeh, a former Education and Energy Minister, is from. With 3,013,856 registered voters, Ashanti is a critical voting base for the NPP, consistently delivering high margins in favor of the party.
On the other hand, Mahama’s running mate, Professor Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, hails from the Central Region and is considered a “swing state” in Ghanaian politics. The NDC hopes her regional influence can capture undecided votes in an area pivotal to election outcomes.
Demographics and Voter Behavior
Ghana’s voter demographics are influenced by religion, tribe, geography, and, increasingly, policy issues. The NDC’s Mahama-Opoku-Agyemang ticket appeals largely to the Christian majority, while the NPP’s Bawumia-Opoku Prempeh ticket offers a Muslim-Christian balance, which could attract religious sympathy votes.
In terms of tribal and geographic influence, the NPP’s Ashanti-Mamprusi ticket may hold a slight edge in terms of potential tribal support, though the NDC could benefit from the gender dynamic, with women constituting 51% of Ghana’s population.
Social Media Popularity
KURAC’s analysis of social media presence indicates that Mahama enjoys significantly more followers than Bawumia across platforms like Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, and YouTube. Mahama boasts 1.4 million Facebook followers and 2.3 million on X, compared to Bawumia’s 980,000 on Facebook and 751,000 on X. These figures suggest Mahama is more popular on digital platforms, which could translate into greater public awareness.
Opinion Polls and Popularity Ratings
Opinion polls conducted by several organizations indicate a tight race between Mahama and Bawumia. According to Global Info Analytics, Mahama leads with 53.2%, while Fitc Solution International Research and Data Firm also predicts a Mahama win. However, Professor Smart Sarpong’s analysis shows Bawumia leading in personal popularity, though the NDC remains the more popular party overall.
Global Info Analytics predicts Mahama could win with 51.1% of the vote, while Bawumia is projected to secure 37.3%, with third-party candidates like Nana Kwame Bediako (6.2%) and Alan Kyerematen (4.1%) trailing behind. Despite the predictions, KURAC stresses that the election could still come down to key swing regions and the potential for a runoff if no candidate secures the required 50%+1 vote.
Previous Elections and Party Performance
Looking at previous elections, Mahama’s NDC won nine regions in the 2020 presidential election, including Greater Accra, Northern, Volta, and Upper West, securing 6,213,182 votes (47.36%). The NPP’s Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo won seven regions, including Ashanti, Eastern, and Central, garnering 6,730,587 votes (51.30%).
In the 2020 parliamentary elections, both the NPP and NDC won 137 seats each, with one independent candidate siding with the NPP to give them a majority. While the NDC won the majority of seats in the Central Region, the NPP secured significant seats in the Ashanti and Eastern regions.
Conclusion
The 2024 election is poised to be a Northern Derby between two candidates from the same geographic region. However, the outcome will likely be determined by voters in Ghana’s southern regions, particularly swing states like Greater Accra, Central, and Western regions.
While Mahama has a clear advantage in terms of political experience, governance, and digital popularity, Bawumia’s ticket with Opoku Prempeh could attract significant support in key NPP strongholds. KURAC concludes that while Mahama may have a slight edge going into the election, especially with his extensive political background and the NDC’s gender card, the race remains highly competitive.
Ultimately, the decision lies with Ghanaian voters, who will determine the nation’s future leadership in December 2024.
Sign by:
Yussif Abdul Kudus
+233(0)245535151
